The Chip Witch Blog

18.06.2025 at 07:56:20 UTC

Type	Jun 18	Jun 19	Jun 20
Active	35%	35%	25%
Minor	20%	20%	35%
Moderate	10%	5%	15%
Strong	1%	1%	5%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	3.33	3.67	2.33
03-06UT	3.00	3.33	4.33
06-09UT	2.00	2.00	5.00
09-12UT	2.33	3.00	4.33
12-15UT	2.67	1.67	3.33
15-18UT	3.33	1.67	3.33
18-21UT	4.00	2.67	2.33
21-00UT	4.33	2.33	3.67
Solar Activity
Solar activity reached high levels with an X1.2/2b flare at 17/2149 UTC from Region 4114 (N18W12, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The Palehua observatory reported a 10cm radio burst of 200 sfu with this event. 4114 remains the largest, most complex region on the disk. Region 4115 (N20W01, Eso/beta) grew in length and also produced a few flares. An M1.5 flare was in progress at the end of the summary period. This flare appears to be originating from a new emergence of flux in the SE at approximately S13E70. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters continued to display signs of CH HSS as Earth remains geoeffective with the large positive polarity CH in the southern hemisphere. Total field (Bt) remained around 7-9 nT with the north-south (Bz) component oscillating between +8 and -6 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged 470-520 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation.
Energetic Particle
Due to continued influence from the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS), the greater than 2 MeV electron flux on the GOES-19 satellite reached the 1000 pfu threshold at 17/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.